This monograph examines the culture of risk and uncertainty tolerance within the US Army officer culture. The author defines culture as the collective experiences, training and education among officers. The central research question is does the...
During war leadership is the supreme test of a commander. Leaders at all levels attempt to accomplish their missions while preserving their men. The nature of offensive operations places an additional strain on leaders and entails a certain amount...
This monograph examines the utility of a methodology designed around an organization's information processing requirements as a means for structuring combined forces in operations other than war (OOTW). The hypothetical basis of the methodology is...
The construct for predictive analysis is based on the unfounded assumption that technologies and sound analysis will dissipate uncertainty in war. U.S. military doctrine shows an expectation for prediction from the intelligence process; it assumes...
People in modern societies are generally becoming more risk aversive. Whether risk is perceived to include uncertainty or not, form two differing schools of thought within literature and doctrine. Risk aversion is viewed as a challenge in most...
Based upon observations from the Combat Training Centers, military staffs are ineffective at tactical war gaming and thus the war game rarely contributes to effective decision-making. While war gaming is generally recognized as a weakness among...
The U.S. Army is on the brink of a revolution in military affairs (RMA). Significant advancements in informational technologies and precision warfare are providing unprecedented potential for future warfare. These changes challenge the...
This monograph examines the relationship between battlefield synchronization and decision-making. Beginning with a review of rational analytical decision theory and Gary Klein’s recognition primed decision theory, the monograph reviews the...
The battlefield's rapidly changing environment requires soldiers to make decisions and use initiative to defeat the enemy. This monograph's intent is to explain why training for uncertainty is imperative in cultivating a unit able to adapt to the...
This monograph examines the adequacy of the joint task force (JTF) to operate effectively in the context of wartime uncertainty. Military theorists have long understood the deleterious effects of uncertainty on the conduct of war. Commanders never...
Since its inception in 2001, the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) has been a geographically limited force addressing a problem that is not geographically constrained. ISAF operations were limited to Kabul initially. In 2003, the...
This monograph offers a definition of "military art," discusses military art's relationship to the commander's management of battlefield uncertainty, and uncertainty's relationship to nonlinearity. Using the terms of art, uncertainty, and...
Since the development of Industrial Age armies, the battlefield has increased in complexity and uncertainty. This is the result of tactical units dispersing on the battlefield for protection from increased weapon lethality and the need to sustain...
Doctrine and theory suggest that greater technologies in Army information systems will allow the capability to gain increased situational awareness and thereby reduce battlefield uncertainty. Information based operations allow the Army to answer...
With information technologies increasingly shaping the environment in which U.S. military forces operate, Joint Vision 2020 and other recent DoD literature highlight the fundamental importance of achieving "decision superiority "--essentially, ...
This monograph examines how the U.S. Army compares to other complex systems in the use of information to solve problems. Like most complex systems, the U.S. Army strives to attain an informational advantage over its opponents. However, according to...
This monograph proposes an answer to the question: Can the current tactical mission risk analysis process adequately support the doctrine tenet of versatility? The conclusion is that true versatility in unfamiliar operations may require a more...
Why has an S2 never won a wargame when playing predicted enemy courses of action against a friendly course of action during the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP)? Why did the V Corps commander during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) respond to...
The U.S. Army 's Military Decision-Making (MDMP) has been criticized repeatedly during the past decade for being untimely, unrealistic, dogmatic, and stifling creativity. U.S. Army Field Manual, FM 5.0, Army Planning and Orders Production, is...
This monograph discusses the role of intelligence in support of operational art. Intelligence support at all levels of war is critical for the commander to successfully apply force to achieve the established goals and objectives. This is...